Montana is a weird state when it comes to elections. It has voted twice for Democrats since 1952 (64, 92), but inexplicably has a contested Governor’s race every election cycle. It’s sort of like the reverse Massachusetts. Mass has a moderate R as Governor, but a heavily D state legislature. Currently Montana has a D Governor, and a R legislature that will not flip anytime soon. This year’s offering in the Gov. race: Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (D) vs Representative Greg Gianforte (R). PI Currently has this in the 55-65 Republican range, but I disagree. I think this race is Lean Dem to likely Dem, and should certainly be in the 60-70 Dem range, and now I will tell you why.
Gubernatorial History vs POTUS
Most people view Montana as a solidly Red state, and they are right. Kind of. When it comes to Presidential elections, it absolutely is a red state, with Trump winning by 20 points in 2016. However, this does not carry over to the Governor’s race. For the past 16 straight years a Democrat has held the Governor's office. In 2016, an incumbent, Steve Bullock, won by 5 points with Cooney as his Lieutenant Gov. and Gianforte as his opponent.
Cooney is a Strong candidate
With Bullock’s approval ratings sky-high (the latest one I could find had him at over 70%), it seems like a logical decision to try and connect his tenure as Gov. to this year’s election. Cooney does that the best by far. Cooney is to Steve Bullock in this election what Joe Biden is trying to do with Obama. Both are saying “Hey remember this guy? He was good, right? Well Guess what? I was his second-in-command!” Cooney is not a weak candidate by any means.
Gianforte is a Weak candidate
Why? Why would you choose Gianforte? As mentioned earlier, Gianforte lost in the 2016 gubernatorial race by 5 points. He is also one of the richest congressmen, at a whopping $315 million in net worth. He became a wannabe wrestler when he beat up a reporter on election eve. There is a lot of material for attack ads here.
Polls are liars
If you look at the 538 list of Montana polls, you would see a recent poll with Gianforte ahead by 9. He has this in the bag, right? Wrong. That poll, in addition to coming from an unrated pollster, had a whopping 18% undecided, and a 4.5 MoE. This race is far from over, and Cooney has plenty of time to more strongly associate his name with Bullock’s. (I freely admit that not a lot of people know who their lieutenant governor is)
In conclusion, this is a race that is mispriced in favor of Republicans, mostly because of bias and faulty assumptions based on polling. I’d say that this race is in the Dem’s favor at the moment, and will only look better for them as the months go on.
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