Ok Polloi, we are about 2 weeks away from Iowa, and the last debate is done. It’s been a few weeks since I made my post on the Iowa cyclone, but I mostly ignored the big candidates. Since then, there’s been a) a debate and b) an endorsement from the NYT (R.I.P. my Warren shares in that market). In this post, I will try and figure out the right and wrong prices for the top 6 viable candidates (no 1¢ers)from bottom to top. We’ll discuss whether they are over or underpriced. AND GUESS WHAT TIME IT IS!
Time to face the facts. Andrew Yang will not win the nomination bar some tragedy where a bunch of candidates die. He will not win Iowa. I would bet my house he doesn’t win a primary. He’s hovering around 1-2¢, which I might argue is a little high.
Senator Klobuchar (Klob) is relatively stationary in the sub 5¢ range. As I said in my Iowa cyclone post, I believe she is the one for a late rise. The was trading as high as 13¢ as late as December 23, but has fallen hard after an unmemorable debate performance. NYT might be able to give her a boost, but she doesn’t need it. The most recent polls have her in the 8-11%- range, so she is a steal at her price.
Finally, we are getting into the double digits - barely. Warren is around the 11-12¢ range recently on PredictIt, which surprisingly only jumped 1¢ after she was endorsed by the NYT. I don’t believe it matters in the overall election, but I certainly expected her PI price to jump a bit. Oh well. Anyway, I think, considering that Liz is polling in the 15-16% range, she’s a bit underpriced. She has a chance to pick up votes in the 2nd round of caucusing (if you are confused on the caucusing rules, just go here)
As I mentioned in my Iowa cyclone post, I felt like Pete peaked too early, and was now crashing. Though my idea of crashing is apparently very different than PredictIt’s. In early December, Pete was reaching highs of 40¢, and now he’s in the high teens range. I think he should be valued in the low to mid 20s. His poll numbers aren’t that bad, and he’s a good 2nd ballot option.
I think Biden is very close to his optimal price. I think he should be around that high 20s, low 30s. A big plus is that he has the alphabetical advantage, as PredictIt’s tiebreakers are decided by last name. Biden’s doing well in polls, and the only thing in his way is Ukraine or his health. Ukraine is why I wouldn’t go all in on Biden right now. If he gets called into the Senate, it’s GAME OVER, or close to it.
Bernie should not be this high. He has a rival that just had a major endorsement, he’s been falling in polls, and no matter how much money he’s raised, the Steyer rule applies: Money doesn’t buy elections. He should, at max, be even-ish with Biden’s ideal price. Instead, he’s 5¢ to 10¢ higher. That’s just wrong.
Markets err. They erred when they bet in favor of the housing market in 2008. They erred when reckless speculation crashed the 1929 crash. And they err now by giving Bernie an almost 50% chance of winning Iowa. (Ok, maybe it is a bit dramatic. But you get my point.) I would definitely suggest getting in on the cheap Klob, Liz, and Pete shares in this market, cause February 3rd’s coming down the tracks, and it’s time to jump on the money train.
LIST TIME!
Andrew Yang (will not win)
Time to face the facts. Andrew Yang will not win the nomination bar some tragedy where a bunch of candidates die. He will not win Iowa. I would bet my house he doesn’t win a primary. He’s hovering around 1-2¢, which I might argue is a little high.
Amy Klobuchar
Senator Klobuchar (Klob) is relatively stationary in the sub 5¢ range. As I said in my Iowa cyclone post, I believe she is the one for a late rise. The was trading as high as 13¢ as late as December 23, but has fallen hard after an unmemorable debate performance. NYT might be able to give her a boost, but she doesn’t need it. The most recent polls have her in the 8-11%- range, so she is a steal at her price.
Liz Warren
Finally, we are getting into the double digits - barely. Warren is around the 11-12¢ range recently on PredictIt, which surprisingly only jumped 1¢ after she was endorsed by the NYT. I don’t believe it matters in the overall election, but I certainly expected her PI price to jump a bit. Oh well. Anyway, I think, considering that Liz is polling in the 15-16% range, she’s a bit underpriced. She has a chance to pick up votes in the 2nd round of caucusing (if you are confused on the caucusing rules, just go here)
Mayor Pete
Joe Biden
I think Biden is very close to his optimal price. I think he should be around that high 20s, low 30s. A big plus is that he has the alphabetical advantage, as PredictIt’s tiebreakers are decided by last name. Biden’s doing well in polls, and the only thing in his way is Ukraine or his health. Ukraine is why I wouldn’t go all in on Biden right now. If he gets called into the Senate, it’s GAME OVER, or close to it.
Feel the Bern (cause the Times is with her)
Conclusion
Markets err. They erred when they bet in favor of the housing market in 2008. They erred when reckless speculation crashed the 1929 crash. And they err now by giving Bernie an almost 50% chance of winning Iowa. (Ok, maybe it is a bit dramatic. But you get my point.) I would definitely suggest getting in on the cheap Klob, Liz, and Pete shares in this market, cause February 3rd’s coming down the tracks, and it’s time to jump on the money train.
TuckLeg Out
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