Figuring out the Iowa Cyclone

Iowa Caucuses are Februrary 3rd, and this is the time of year when the Iowa market gets kind of crazy. As of this writing, it is the third biggest market on the site, with more than 9.2 million shares traded.It is now when we see what people (and by people, I mean basically just me) call a “Iowa Cyclone”.


Definition: A candidate who has risen in the polls dramatically in the couple months or so before the Iowa Caucus, usually by more than 10 percent, but often more than 20. Historical examples include: 2004 - Sens. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.). They went up by more than 20 points than their early January standing. 2008 - Mike Huckabee (R) was up 20 points from his November polling, and won by 9 points over Mitt Romney. 2012 - Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) who was in 6th with only 8% with a week to go. Then, over the last week, he doubled his poll numbers to be in 3rd place in the race, and would win the state with almost 25%.
Have I proved the existence of cyclones yet?
It seems I have. And this information leads to one vital question when thinking about what to do in this market.

Who will the Iowa Cyclone be? Or has he/she already appeared?

This is the question we need to answer. If we can figure out this question, then we can use that to bet accordingly in these markets.
A lot of you will say, “But TuckLeg, we already know who the Iowa cyclone is. It’s Mayor Pete!” And I would say “Be quiet, readers, and let me finish.” You can make a good case for Mayor Pete, but in my opinion, he peaked too early, and now might be losing momentum moving towards February. He’s dropped in the polls by three points this past month, and PredictIt is showing it:


Mayor Pete has dropped from a high of almost 40 cents to being less than Biden on this market. He is faltering in Iowa, and that’s why we won’t consider him in our assessment of the Iowa Cyclone. We also won’t include Bernie or Biden, as these 2 are considered “frontrunners” by PredcitIt. We also won’t look at the 1 centers (centese? centii?) such as Gabbard, Patcrick, Bloomberg, Steyer, and whoever the heck is still “in” this still. Let’s focus on the remaining 3: Warren, Klobuchar, and Yang.

Warren

The thing about Warren is that she had her moment. She had those 2 weeks at the beginning of August where she was barely above Biden in the polls, and PredictIt took that and shot her stock up to 50+ cents in the general nomination and 60 in this market. Since then, her campaign has floundered, but not as much as people think. In this market, she’s only around 9 cents, but don’t let that fool you. She is consistently polling in the 16-19 range, putting her in 4th on RCP. She has a good chance to win if either Sanders or Mayor Pete fail before the caucus. She also has a chance to pick up steam going into February.

Klobuchar

Now Klobuchar is the one that interests me. She has been slowly creeping up in the polls, and has been a bit undervalued on PredictIt. She’s at 5 cents right now, and the person that I think is most likely to be the cyclone. She has a few things going for her: She’s Midwestern (as she constantly reminds us), she’s (kind of) likeable, and a moderate that tries to be sensible. It seems like she could be a viable candidate in the 2nd or 3rd round. The only catch is that you have to be above 15% to be “viable” after the 1st round of caucusing. If she doesn’t get that, her day is basically over. But if she rises like a cyclone, then that shouldn’t be too hard.

Yang

No. I do not believe that Yang will be the Iowa cyclone. He won’t. His campaign has reached all the people it can reach. His campaign doesn’t have a large base. His campaign is barely Democratic. HIS CAMPAIGN IS STILL BLASTING ME WITH THESE GOSH DARN ADS. Sorry. I got a little heated. To be frank, Yang just doesn’t appeal to people. There is always the chance of him being the cyclone, but… YangGang… he just can’t do it. I’m so sorry. Kind of.

WHAT TO BUY SECTION

Klobuchar at 3-5 cents

Warren (maybe) at 7-9 cents

Not a single Pete share.



TuckLeg out