When it comes to Minnesota, no one knows what is going to happen in the Land of 10000 Lakes. There has been no polling since November, we’re in a period of great uncertainty when it comes to the DNOM, and I’m running out of Tic-Tacs. Let’s go through other ways we can try and see who will win. LIST TIME!
Polling on Minnesota is both a) old as the nickels at the bottom of my couch, b) and as bad as my Spanish (no entiendo espanol), but let’s give it a try. These are the 2 polls that have been made on Minnesota:
If these are true, then Warren would win MN. At her current price of 2c, and if we take the polls at face value, then she would be an incredible steal. Unfortunately, we can’t take the polls at face value, mostly because they are months old. A lot of the candidates in them have dropped out, and Warren has crashed from her high in November. Moving on…
While I couldn’t get totals on campaign spending, I could get fundraising totals from Minnesota.
If we take these fundraising totals, then we get a somewhat good view of the market, with two exceptions: 1. Bernie is leading Klob on PI by a lot more than this would say, and 2. Mike isn’t on the list. The second one is the big one. Mike’s ads could totally mess up what is Klobs primary to lose. Still, the amount of support we see in fundraising for Klob is impressive, and should not be just tossed aside.
If we take the last poll from MN and adjust it so that the change in national polls (Emerson, in this case) in that time period affect the candidates, we get this:
Now, this is obviously not the best or most accurate way of getting new data; Bloomberg isn’t even on here, and 21% is unaccounted for in the new change. Warren is 2% above Sanders, which is totally unrealistic. That 21% could go to Bloomberg, but we don’t know. Otherwise, it looks like Klobuchar’s in the lead, but by a small margin which is hanging by a thread.
Ah the comments, the comments, the pinnacle of gambling knowledge. Let’s take a look at what they have to say:
And I never looked at the comments section again.
This is really a tossup until new polling comes out. At a guess, I would say buy Klob under 30c if possible, and short Mayor Pete (who doesn't have a prayer) and Sanders (who is a little overpriced). But the point of this whole exercise was to try and see what other means we can come up with to try and figure out a sparsely polled primary. I’ve given you the data, so go ahead and try and make an independent decision. Thanks for reading.
POLLING?
Polling on Minnesota is both a) old as the nickels at the bottom of my couch, b) and as bad as my Spanish (no entiendo espanol), but let’s give it a try. These are the 2 polls that have been made on Minnesota:
If these are true, then Warren would win MN. At her current price of 2c, and if we take the polls at face value, then she would be an incredible steal. Unfortunately, we can’t take the polls at face value, mostly because they are months old. A lot of the candidates in them have dropped out, and Warren has crashed from her high in November. Moving on…
CAMPAIGN FINANCING?
While I couldn’t get totals on campaign spending, I could get fundraising totals from Minnesota.
If we take these fundraising totals, then we get a somewhat good view of the market, with two exceptions: 1. Bernie is leading Klob on PI by a lot more than this would say, and 2. Mike isn’t on the list. The second one is the big one. Mike’s ads could totally mess up what is Klobs primary to lose. Still, the amount of support we see in fundraising for Klob is impressive, and should not be just tossed aside.
ADJUSTED POLLING?
If we take the last poll from MN and adjust it so that the change in national polls (Emerson, in this case) in that time period affect the candidates, we get this:
Now, this is obviously not the best or most accurate way of getting new data; Bloomberg isn’t even on here, and 21% is unaccounted for in the new change. Warren is 2% above Sanders, which is totally unrealistic. That 21% could go to Bloomberg, but we don’t know. Otherwise, it looks like Klobuchar’s in the lead, but by a small margin which is hanging by a thread.
THE COMMENTS?
Ah the comments, the comments, the pinnacle of gambling knowledge. Let’s take a look at what they have to say:
And I never looked at the comments section again.
CONCLUSION
This is really a tossup until new polling comes out. At a guess, I would say buy Klob under 30c if possible, and short Mayor Pete (who doesn't have a prayer) and Sanders (who is a little overpriced). But the point of this whole exercise was to try and see what other means we can come up with to try and figure out a sparsely polled primary. I’ve given you the data, so go ahead and try and make an independent decision. Thanks for reading.
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