This market, which is the 2020 MOV market, may not be the most out of whack, or the cheapest, but I view it as an undervalued opportunity. Not a lot of people are talking about this market, or about the popular vote in general. And why would you? The popular vote doesn’t impact the winner of the Electoral College. There’s no framed certificate for winning the EC but losing the election. But we, us, political gamblers and degens, have a big reason to care: this market.
My opinion: Even if the Electoral College is close (it won’t be) I believe Biden will rack up the votes in states like California (who is sending every registered voter a mail ballot) and Texas (which already has 100% of the total 2016 turnout from EARLY VOTING ALONE). Along with states that will undoubtedly have large turnout, but don’t have as many early votes, most notably New York and Illinois (31.9% and 53% of 2016 TT), Biden is absolutely going to win the popular vote by a whole lot. In the PredictIt market specifically, I think 10.5%+ is absolutely the most likely outcome, and it’s near guaranteed to be above 6%. I think betting the top 3 Dem brackets (essentially 7.5%+) is a great play for where it is right now, in the 50c range. If you would rather have a go big or go home play, B16 (D10.5%+) is where it’s at.
Another factor to consider is that all the polls I've seen show Rump's lead in even most red states is significantly less than in '16. Not that he's likely to lose them, but it affects the MOV.
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