Hey Polloi, I’m back, and I’m here to talk to you about Brexit. An interesting topic, right? Especially when the only market on PredictIt is this one:
A sure thing, right? Anything on PredictIt that’s over 90 cents is a sure bet, according to the comments section. Well don’t be so sure. Sometimes, gasp, PredictIt gets things wrong. DUN DUN DUNNNN! Seriously, though, you can make a crap ton on PredictIt by just finding these kind of markets and choosing the weakest ones. “How is this one weak, TuckLeg? Everybody knows, that Brexit is supposed to pass through Parliament on 1/31.” Well, Polloi, let me explain. I think that the end of this month could go three ways. And in my usual fashion, I will give them to you in list form.
1. Brexit happens, and the market resolves yes. This is very likely, but probably not as high as 90%, considering 2 and 3.
2. Some delay/extension happens, and Brexit doesn’t happen before 2/1. Highly unlikely, and probably the main reason behind the NO price.
3. This is the reason I bought a lot of NO on this. Let me explain. PredictIt’s rules on this market are as follows:
That’s it. That is every word of the rules on the 3rd biggest market in the “World” section of PredictIt. If you haven’t guessed already, the reason why I am betting NO on this market is that PredictIt’s rules on this market are extremely vague. They don’t talk about withdrawal periods, trade agreements, or any other part of this incredibly complex event that has stretched on for years. They are very unclear, which leaves a lot of wiggle room. What I’m saying is that when this market resolves, PredictIt could just go “Whoops, sorry YES investors, but we’re including the withdrawal period. Byeeee.” This is what I’m betting on, and I think you should too.
A sure thing, right? Anything on PredictIt that’s over 90 cents is a sure bet, according to the comments section. Well don’t be so sure. Sometimes, gasp, PredictIt gets things wrong. DUN DUN DUNNNN! Seriously, though, you can make a crap ton on PredictIt by just finding these kind of markets and choosing the weakest ones. “How is this one weak, TuckLeg? Everybody knows, that Brexit is supposed to pass through Parliament on 1/31.” Well, Polloi, let me explain. I think that the end of this month could go three ways. And in my usual fashion, I will give them to you in list form.
1. Brexit happens, and the market resolves yes. This is very likely, but probably not as high as 90%, considering 2 and 3.
2. Some delay/extension happens, and Brexit doesn’t happen before 2/1. Highly unlikely, and probably the main reason behind the NO price.
3. This is the reason I bought a lot of NO on this. Let me explain. PredictIt’s rules on this market are as follows:
That’s it. That is every word of the rules on the 3rd biggest market in the “World” section of PredictIt. If you haven’t guessed already, the reason why I am betting NO on this market is that PredictIt’s rules on this market are extremely vague. They don’t talk about withdrawal periods, trade agreements, or any other part of this incredibly complex event that has stretched on for years. They are very unclear, which leaves a lot of wiggle room. What I’m saying is that when this market resolves, PredictIt could just go “Whoops, sorry YES investors, but we’re including the withdrawal period. Byeeee.” This is what I’m betting on, and I think you should too.
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