There are two things to consider when making a bet on PredictIt. What is the price now, and what should the price be? The bigger the gap, the more profit to be made. I believe there is a mighty big gap in this market that is just waiting to be exploited.
Quick background: Steve Bullock is the current Governor of Montana and was one of the early presidential candidates in the race. He has since dropped out.
Many Yes buyers will disagree with me on this. But remember this: I’m not saying that No is a “definitely gonna happen” thing, I’m saying it’s a “40Y/60N” kinda thing. I hope that I can prove to you that the odds in this market are very, very skewed right now and certainty is far from certain.
Evidence In Favor of Bullock Running
There is some evidence of Bullock running, including this very vague and unhelpful tweet shared in the comments by user RJ20151, who most likely uses Bruh Sound Effect #44 as his ringtone.
Like, bruh, we knew the deadline. smh. But there are 2 real reasons that the price is sky-high.
Quick background: Steve Bullock is the current Governor of Montana and was one of the early presidential candidates in the race. He has since dropped out.
Many Yes buyers will disagree with me on this. But remember this: I’m not saying that No is a “definitely gonna happen” thing, I’m saying it’s a “40Y/60N” kinda thing. I hope that I can prove to you that the odds in this market are very, very skewed right now and certainty is far from certain.
Evidence In Favor of Bullock Running
There is some evidence of Bullock running, including this very vague and unhelpful tweet shared in the comments by user RJ20151, who most likely uses Bruh Sound Effect #44 as his ringtone.
Like, bruh, we knew the deadline. smh. But there are 2 real reasons that the price is sky-high.
Insider Trading?
A lot of the comments are saying that this is insider trading, and it may be that. But if every odd pump was insider trading, Clinton would be the Dem Nominee with Kamala as Veep. It could just be someone that thought it was going to happen, and then people jumped on the bandwagon.
NYT Article
3 Days ago, the New York Times released this article, which pushed this market into the 90s.
Hear that? “Poised” is the big catch. He’s not doing it yet, but he’s “poised”, which is entirely subjective and backed by a lack of real evidence. Of course, the media jumped on this immediately, led by pinnacles of journalistic integrity CNN and The Hill.
This is it. That’s all behind a 90c+ price. But what evidence do we have that he won’t run?
Evidence Against Bullock Running
Bullock said he won’t run. He said when he dropped out he won’t run. He even had the perfect opportunity to start his campaign at a farewell rally last week.
In Conclusion
NO is an amazing bet here, considering the evidence. I would probably wait for a swing under 10, if possible. I think this is a very good value, considering the flimsiness (is that a word?) of the evidence.
Remember,
“It’s not a gambling problem if you don’t lose” -Stephen Hawking
A lot of the comments are saying that this is insider trading, and it may be that. But if every odd pump was insider trading, Clinton would be the Dem Nominee with Kamala as Veep. It could just be someone that thought it was going to happen, and then people jumped on the bandwagon.
NYT Article
3 Days ago, the New York Times released this article, which pushed this market into the 90s.
Hear that? “Poised” is the big catch. He’s not doing it yet, but he’s “poised”, which is entirely subjective and backed by a lack of real evidence. Of course, the media jumped on this immediately, led by pinnacles of journalistic integrity CNN and The Hill.
This is it. That’s all behind a 90c+ price. But what evidence do we have that he won’t run?
Evidence Against Bullock Running
Bullock said he won’t run. He said when he dropped out he won’t run. He even had the perfect opportunity to start his campaign at a farewell rally last week.
In Conclusion
NO is an amazing bet here, considering the evidence. I would probably wait for a swing under 10, if possible. I think this is a very good value, considering the flimsiness (is that a word?) of the evidence.
Remember,
“It’s not a gambling problem if you don’t lose” -Stephen Hawking
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