Welcome to the Roundup, where I go through some quick hits of things that are happening on Predictit. First off....
Bernie is 70¢+ in New Hampshire, somehow. Most recent polling has Bernie in the low to mid 20s, with the occasional reach into the high 20s. This places him in first, about 5-10 points ahead of Biden/Mayor Pete. He should not be anywhere close to 70¢. I’m pricing him around the 40s range. Buy those NO shares!
Iowa is crazy. Polls are super conflicting, with some having Sanders (who is way overpriced atm) ahead by 10 or so, some having Biden having a 5 point lead, and some with Deval Patrick above 2% (Just kidding on that last one). Some have Klob in the low teens, some have Pete below both Warren and Klob, it’s just insanity. In general, the polls that show Biden with a big lead, show Pete tied with Sanders. The ones with Sanders in the lead, (generally) show Pete in a tie with Biden. This makes him a steal at the 12¢-15¢ range he’s trading at now. Buy Pete YES shares!
It’s time to talk about some DUN DUN DUN impeachment markets; specifically, these ones:
Romney and Murkowski Convict Vote: Considering these senators a) aren’t up for re-election in 2020 b) have split from their party a lot, and c) both come from states that voted for other candidates in the 2016 Republican Primaries. Given those points, I think these markets are very good for the price. Romney especially, as Utah is a notable never-Trumper state.
Bolton Testimony: Star Spangled Gamblers did a great article on this, so check their site if you want a more in-depth look on testimony markets. Bolton is an easy NO on this, because even if he did try and testify, Trump could just use executive privilege. I’d buy NO all the way to the 80s or so, just because of that Feb. 29th date.
In conclusion, over the last few days, there has been a bull run on Bernie in most primaries. Make sure to calm down, do some research, and then make an informed decision. It’s my opinion that Bernie is overvalued in a lot of primaries. You can see all of his prices here. Stay safe and win big, Polloi.
Bernie is 70¢+ in New Hampshire, somehow. Most recent polling has Bernie in the low to mid 20s, with the occasional reach into the high 20s. This places him in first, about 5-10 points ahead of Biden/Mayor Pete. He should not be anywhere close to 70¢. I’m pricing him around the 40s range. Buy those NO shares!
Iowa is crazy. Polls are super conflicting, with some having Sanders (who is way overpriced atm) ahead by 10 or so, some having Biden having a 5 point lead, and some with Deval Patrick above 2% (Just kidding on that last one). Some have Klob in the low teens, some have Pete below both Warren and Klob, it’s just insanity. In general, the polls that show Biden with a big lead, show Pete tied with Sanders. The ones with Sanders in the lead, (generally) show Pete in a tie with Biden. This makes him a steal at the 12¢-15¢ range he’s trading at now. Buy Pete YES shares!
It’s time to talk about some DUN DUN DUN impeachment markets; specifically, these ones:
Romney and Murkowski Convict Vote: Considering these senators a) aren’t up for re-election in 2020 b) have split from their party a lot, and c) both come from states that voted for other candidates in the 2016 Republican Primaries. Given those points, I think these markets are very good for the price. Romney especially, as Utah is a notable never-Trumper state.
Bolton Testimony: Star Spangled Gamblers did a great article on this, so check their site if you want a more in-depth look on testimony markets. Bolton is an easy NO on this, because even if he did try and testify, Trump could just use executive privilege. I’d buy NO all the way to the 80s or so, just because of that Feb. 29th date.
In conclusion, over the last few days, there has been a bull run on Bernie in most primaries. Make sure to calm down, do some research, and then make an informed decision. It’s my opinion that Bernie is overvalued in a lot of primaries. You can see all of his prices here. Stay safe and win big, Polloi.
TuckLeg out
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